Tau-leaped Particle Learning

Abstract

Development of effective policy interventions to stem disease outbreaks requires knowledge of the current state of affairs, e.g. how many individuals are currently infected, a strain's virulence, etc, as well as our uncertainty of these values. A Bayesian inferential approach provides this information, but at a computational expense. We develop a sequential Bayesian approach based on an epidemiological compartment model and noisy count observations of the transitions between compartments.